Bayesian credible intervals for response surface optima

In response surface methodology, one is usually interested in estimating the optimal conditions based on a small number of experimental runs which are designed to optimally sample the experimental space. Typically, regression models are constructed from the experimental data and interrogated in order to provide a point estimate of the independent variable settings predicted to optimize the response. Unfortunately, these point estimates are rarely accompanied with uncertainty intervals. Though classical frequentist confidence intervals can be constructed for unconstrained quadratic models, higher order, constrained or nonlinear models are often encountered in practice. Existing techniques for constructing uncertainty estimates in such situations have not been implemented widely, due in part to the need to set adjustable parameters or because of limited or difficult applicability to constrained or nonlinear problems. To address these limitations a Bayesian method of determining credible intervals for response surface optima was developed. The approach shows good coverage probabilities on two test problems, is straightforward to implement and is readily applicable to the kind of constrained and/or nonlinear problems that frequently appear in practice.     

现代教育技术背景下的“阐释”与“文本细读”——外国文学教学研究与探索

在现代教育技术背景下,外国文学教师必须充分发挥主导作用,在教学过程中对文本和文艺理论进行恰当＂阐释＂,调动和开发学生的积极性和主动性,引导其进行＂文本细读＂。通过多种教学方法,促进学生对学习内容的自觉＂发现＂,与教师的＂阐释＂进行无缝对接,以实现外国文学的高效教学。     

试谈分类阅读中的信息提取

阅读理解过程是作者、语言信息和读者等几方面相互作用的结果.如果从作者写作的思维模式入手,进行分类阅读,就能较快地提取有关信息,从而提高阅读理解水平.     

Cutting Experimental Designs into Blocks

Most experimental material in agriculture and industry is heterogeneous in nature and therefore its statistical analysis benefits from blocking. Many experiments are restricted in time or space, and again blocking is useful. This paper adopts the idea of orthogonal blocking of Box & Hunter (1957) and applies it to optimal blocking designs. This approach is then compared with the determinant-based approach described in the literature for constructing block designs.     

中国分县地形起伏度及其与人口分布和经济发展的相关性

地形条件是影响区域人口分布和社会经济发展的主要因子之一。中国的县域地形起伏度呈西高东低、南高北低的空间格局,且以低值为主,50%以上的县域单元地形起伏度在1以下(绝对起伏不超过1 000m),较好地表达了我国地形呈三级阶梯分布的空间特征。2005年全国70%以上的人口居住在地形起伏度小于1的县域,经济发展向低起伏度地区明显集中,地形起伏度在1以下县域的GDP占2005年国内生产总值的85.41%,相对于人口分布,经济发展向低起伏度地区集中的趋势更加明显。     

A simpler way of obtaining non-sIngularity conditions of rotatability

In response surface designs, it is not usually easy to handle the moment matrix X'X, especially for higher orders. This paper presents a method in which the moment matrix of a response surface of any order can be standardized, i.e., X'X splits into a diagonal matrix consisting of sub-matrices of lower order. This eases the calculation of the determinant and the inverse of X'X. The method has been illustrated with applications to second, third and fourth order response surfaces.     

回转曲面体在斜二等轴测图中的视觉倾斜

从机械制图国家标准GB44583 - 84的斜二等轴测图出发 ,定义并证明了回转曲面体在斜二等轴测图中的计算机绘图存在的视觉倾斜现象     

CET阅读理解题:问题与方法(二)

本文通过对CET阅读理解考题、提问(问题)以及原文和提问中一些关键词语之间的内含百分比进行分析和对比,探索如何准确解题的方法与捷径。     

Conditions for fourth order rotatability in K dimensions

In this paper, conditions for a set of points to form a rotatable design of order four have been worked out. These condi- tions form the basis for obtaining a set of rotatable designs of order four.     

Second-Order Response Surface Model with Neighbor Effects

This article considers the second-order response surface model in which the experimental units, i.e., plots experience the neighbor effects from immediate left and right neighboring plots assuming the plots to be placed adjacent linearly with no gaps. Conditions have been derived for the estimation of coefficients of second-order response surface model. A method of constructing designs for fitting second-order response surface in the presence of neighbor effects has been developed. The designs so obtained are found to be rotatable.